HONOLULU (KHON2) – The most organized shower activity is expected to remain anchored to the mid-level moisture gradient remains positioned immediately west of Kauai, but still close enough to allow waves of showers along its eastern periphery to spread over the island.

This will continue through Monday as prefrontal convergence strengthens, reaching a maximum around midday Monday when a period of more organized heavy rain capable of producing nuisance type flooding will be possible.

Generally expecting the next 24 hours or so to be wet over Kauai, particularly south and west-facing slopes with mostly dry conditions elsewhere.

Limited showers embedded within southerly flow may spread over Leeward Oahu overnight.

Tricky forecast for Oahu on Monday as the moisture axis advances toward the island. Anticyclonic flow associated with building trades will act to rapidly erode the band of showers as it tracks east.

At the same time, the local gradient should be light enough to allow afternoon sea breeze convergence to capitalize on resident low-level moisture.

One way or another, expect afternoon showers over a portion of the island during Monday afternoon, greater coverage conditional on the shower band holding together.

A few showers may be heavy, particularly over the NE half of the island where sea breeze convergence will be maximized.

Low-level convergence is then lost altogether as moderate trades build on Tuesday and the moisture boundary aligns increasingly parallel with the flow.