HONOLULU (KHON2) – High pressure to the NE will weaken next week, allowing the local pressure gradient to relax.

Winds across the western end of the state will become lighter and somewhat variable…typically displaying more of a southerly component, while the eastern end of the state will be impacted by slightly stronger easterlies.

The weaker winds across the western half may allow for isolated sea breeze activity with afternoon clouds and showers forming over a few leeward and interior areas, and the stronger winds across the eastern half will yield a more typical trade wind weather regime with showers favoring windward areas overnight and leeward slopes of the Big Island each afternoon.

The ESE flow for the western half of the state may also allow island plumes (downstream convergence from island terrain) to bring showers to leeward areas at times.

However, even as the boundary layer moistens a bit with small pockets of moisture riding in on the lighter trades and dew points increase a tad, mid level ridging will strengthen over the area and help to suppress shower activity…so mostly dry and stable conditions should continue through midweek.

A front may pass north or move through portions of the state near the state late next week.

Ensemble model guidance indicates that this feature may bring a band of increased moisture to the western end of the state, increasing rain chances for these areas Friday and Saturday.

Precipitable water values are expected to increase to 1.4 to 1.6 inches across the western end of the state (above the 90th percentile), indicating that periodic heavy showers may be possible.

With this surface boundary looking rather weak along with unimpressive upper level support, not expecting widespread major impacts with this event.